Washington says a Lebanon ceasefire is 'close', in 'optimistic' update

Senior US officials have said overnight they expect a ceasefire deal to be implemented “in the coming hours” along the Israel-Lebanon border.

Speaking to reporters in a late-night, last-minute phone briefing, the US administration officials said that exhaustive behind-the-scenes diplomacy had brought an agreement between the two sides close.

One administration official said: “The ceasefire will be for 21 days along the blue line. During those 21 days, the parties will negotiate towards a potential resolution of the conflict that has been ongoing since Hezbollah launched the attack on 8 October, and to reach a comprehensive agreement along the blue line that allows for residents to return to their home in both Lebanon and Israel.”

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The official emphasised that this ceasefire proposal was for the northern border only and did not extend to Gaza where Israel’s military offensive against Hamas continues but that a pause in the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah would create the “space” for progress in Gaza.

“It buys some time and space to try to pursue an arrangement in Gaza along the lines of the hostage deal we’ve been discussing,” the US official said.

“We believe, regardless of what has happened on the battlefield over the last several days, the moment we feel is now to achieve that diplomatic resolution; to get there.”

The optimistic suggestion of a ceasefire “in the coming hours” follows a joint statement released by the US, UK, Australia, Canada, the EU, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar which called for the immediate 21-day ceasefire.

“It is time to conclude a diplomatic settlement that enables civilians on both sides of the border to return to their homes in safety,” the statement said, as it warned that “diplomacy, however, cannot succeed amid an escalation of this conflict.”

It’s not clear whether Israel or Hezbollah will agree to the ceasefire. Israel has stated its determination to remove the threat from southern Lebanon.

Asked about this, the US administration official said: “We have had this conversation with the parties… they’re familiar with the texts and we’ll let them speak to their actions. We’re expecting the deal in the coming hours.”

Hezbollah, which is a non-state group aligned with Iran, has been firing into Israel from Lebanon since 8 October in support of Hamas in Gaza.

Israel’s efforts to degrade Hezbollah with assassinations and last week’s pager and walkie-talkie attacks pushed the conflict to a new level with all-out regional war a step closer.

Even if the Israeli government can be persuaded to pause its military objectives, there is no guarantee Hezbollah would do the same. The group’s leader Hasan Nasrallah has pledged that attacks would continue until Israel stops attacking Gaza.

The US and other diplomats have been negotiating with the official Lebanese government and not directly with Hezbollah which they consider to be a terrorist group.

“We negotiate with the sovereign state of Lebanon. They are responsible in speaking for the state of Lebanon and for everything that happens on that side of the border,” the US administration official said.

Analysis: A real chance for peace – or just the same old song?

There is an element of deja-vu about this.

We’ve been here many times before, albeit with the other end of this conflict – Gaza.

American officials and the president himself have, so many times, said ceasefires and pauses are close, only to be let down by one side or the other.

This is a different situation for sure.

There are no hostages involved in the Israel-Hezbollah end of this conflict and Israel may feel that it’s had such spectacular success in degrading Hezbollah – with the assassinations and exploding pagers, that it’s militarily and diplomatically smart to pause now.

Will Hezbollah think the same? Or their masters in Iran? Maybe they will have no choice. They have taken an unprecedented beating over the past two weeks – at significant cost to civilians.

If there is a ceasefire along the Lebanon-Israel in the coming hours, as the Americans suggest, then it certainly does provide the space to get back to solving the Gaza nightmare.

It would also give the United Nations, in its biggest week of the year – the General Assembly, a sense of purpose and relevance; diplomacy works.

Israeli PM Netanyahu is speaking in the UN chamber later on Thursday. We’ll see how he reacts to the ceasefire calls and how he frames the conflict all as he addresses a body he rails against as ineffective and anti-Israeli.

“Who they negotiate with and deal with, as far as the non-state actors in Lebanon, I think they’re aware of the responsibility that they have to speak on behalf of the country or the state.

“So our expectation is when the government of Lebanon or when the government of Israel both accept this, this will carry and be implemented as a ceasefire on both sides.”

The potential breakthrough came at the end of a day when confused reports from Israel suggested Israeli ground troops might be preparing an invasion of southern Lebanon.

A US Department of Defence spokesperson later said the Pentagon had seen no suggestion of an imminent Israeli operation.

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