Retail sales figures suggest bad news for overall economic growth but consumer confidence is up

By John Mercury May 24, 2024

Retail sales fell sharply last month – even worse than expected – as official figures show that wet weather once again put shoppers off.

The quantity of goods and services bought by households dropped 2.3% in April, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Only a 0.4% fall was predicted by economists polled by news agency Reuters.

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Retail sales figures are significant as household consumption, measured by the data, is the largest expenditure across the UK economy.

It can play into overall economic growth, measured through gross domestic product (GDP) – a metric that Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will be watching.

Growing the economy was one of the five key pledges he made in January 2023.

Revised data published on Friday morning also showed March sales figures actually came down 0.2% rather than stagnating, as was first announced.

The weather effect

Sales volumes fell across most sectors.

The biggest effect was felt in clothes shops, sports equipment, games and toys stores, and furniture shops doing badly as poor weather reduced the number of people out and about.

Rainfall was far higher than normal – 155% of average – while there was just 79% of average sunshine hours.

A greater proportion of sales happened online, though the volume of orders declined.

Wet weather was behind retail sales flatlining in February.

Consumer confidence

Other data released on Friday morning showed people were feeling better about their finances and the UK economy.

Market research firm GfK’s consumer confidence index rose five points for personal finances and four points for the larger UK economy.

The overall index score was still in minus territory at -17, though it was an improvement of two points from the month before.

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