Israel would be compelled to respond if Iran had direct involvement in Hamas attack

The scale and complexity of an unprecedented attack by Hamas militants on Israel has raised questions about whether the Palestinian group received direct support from Iran, analysts have said.

There is also a chance this is only “phase one” in a wider offensive that seeks to draw in Palestinian militants on the West Bank and Iranian-backed Hezbollah in neighbouring Lebanon.

Tehran has denied involvement. A senior Hamas official has told NBC News the attack that left hundreds of Israelis dead was “a Palestinian operation – 100%”.

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A rapid reassessment will doubtless be under way about the threat posed by Hamas, which controls the Gaza Strip, and about the group’s intentions.

The Reuters news agency reported that the militants had conducted a careful campaign of deception for the previous two years to catch Israel off-guard.

The Israeli intelligence and security services were blindsided by the multi-pronged assault, using bulldozers, hang gliders, motorbikes and rockets.

Even without evidence of a direct Iranian hand, the bloody carnage has triggered a new period of turmoil in Israel and Gaza, which could yet lead to unintended escalation.

The United States does not seem to be taking any chances, quickly announcing the deployment of a carrier strike group, led by the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R Ford to the Eastern Mediterranean.

Jack Waitling, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), said intelligence assessment is about planning contingencies against the most likely course of action and also the most dangerous.

“The fact that this took everyone by surprise means there is uncertainty as to what the most likely trajectory is,” he said.

“But the most dangerous is that this is the first phase in an escalating conflict involving other actors including Iran and Hezbollah and so those are contingencies against which steps are being taken to deter further escalation because it has to be planned against irrespective of whether that is actually what is likely to transpire.”

One thing is certain, Israeli and western intelligence services will be looking for any evidence that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) played a part in the atrocities beyond a long-standing relationship between Tehran and Hamas of financial and military support.

Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, a spokesman for the Israel Defence Forces, said on Monday: “Iran is a major player but we can’t yet say if it was involved in the planning or training.”

This view was echoed by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

If evidence is found that Iran was directly involved, Israel would be compelled to respond – though there are different potential layers of retaliation, from a direct military attack to more deniable missile strikes, cyber attacks and assassinations.

The Israeli authorities have previously always erred on the side of deniability when it comes to targeting Iran as both sides know that an open war between the two states would plunge the world into a new, even deadlier era of turmoil.

As for Hamas, the Palestinian militant group has shown itself to be capable of coordinating attacks on a scale never seen before, from the land, sea and the air, as well as massing a huge arsenal of rockets and drones without Israel noticing.

It could, as the group claimed, have orchestrated the assault on its own, potentially in a bid to ignite a wider regional uprising against Israel.

This means the top priority for the Israeli military in the coming days, weeks, months and possibly years will be to destroy the Hamas leadership and cut off all armed support.

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Israeli officials describe the attack on Saturday as their country’s 9/11 – a reference to the al Qaeda atrocities against the United States on 11 September 2001.

Back then, the US response was to launch a “war of terror” to take out al Qaeda.

Israel will be seeking to do something similar.

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